Dynamical Systems Applied To Biology And Natural Science · 2021

Epidemiological-Economical Pandemic Management By A Spatio-Temporal Mathematical Model

Teddy Lazebnik, Labib Shami, Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky

Affiliations
  1. Ariel University, Israel
  2. Western Galilee College, Israel
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ACML authorsTeddy LazebnikPI

The paper at a glance

We present a mathematical model for pandemic management that considers how severe the disease is and how unevenly people in a population come into contact with each other, within complex dynamics over space and time.

Key findings

  • The model considers the severity of the disease.
  • It accounts for heterogeneity of contacts within the population in complex space-time dynamics.
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  1. Abstract

Abstract

We present a model that considers the severity of the disease and the heterogeneity of contacts between the population in complex space-time dynamics.

We present a model that considers the severity of the disease and the heterogeneity of contacts between the population in complex space-time dynamics. Using mathematical and computational methods, the applied tool was developed to analyze and manage the COVID-19 pandemic (from an epidemiological and an economic point of view), with a particular focus on population heterogeneity in terms of age, susceptibility, symptom severity, social dynamics, and work status. Our model is an extended graph-based spatial-temporal SIR model, allowing multidimensional analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions’ (NPI) impact on the pandemic spread while assessing the economic losses caused by it. The model has been evaluated in three countries, obtaining an average mean square error of 0.047 over a full month of the basic reproduction number (R0). The goal of this study is to create a theoretical framework for crisis management that integrates accumulated epidemiological and economical considerations. An applied result is an open-source program for predicting the outcome of several NPI policies for future researchers and developers who can use and extend our model.

This page reproduces the article Lazebnik et al. (2021), Dynamical Systems Applied To Biology And Natural Science, with the permission of the publisher. Text, tables and figures were extracted from the PDF and the layout adapted for the web; the PDF is the version of record.

Research projectUnderstanding Pandemic Spread and Optimizing Resource AllocationMathematical models and simulations to predict infectious disease spread and guide resource allocation.Paper · 2021Pandemic Management by a Spatio-temporal Mathematical ModelIJNSNSPaper · 2021Spatio-Temporal influence of Non-Pharmaceutical interventions policies on pandemic dynamics and the economy: the case of COVID-19Economic Research

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Cite this paper

APA

Lazebnik, T., Shami, L., & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, S. (2021). Epidemiological-Economical Pandemic Management By A Spatio-Temporal Mathematical Model. Dynamical Systems Applied To Biology And Natural Science.

BibTeX

@article{lazebnik2021epidemiological,
  title = {Epidemiological-Economical Pandemic Management By A Spatio-Temporal Mathematical Model},
  author = {Lazebnik, Teddy and Shami, Labib and Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana},
  journal = {Dynamical Systems Applied To Biology And Natural Science},
  year = {2021}
}